Following the surprising loss of Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia to John Dramani Mahama in the recent presidential election, political analyst and pollster, Prof. Smart Sarpong, took to Angel FM to reflect on the results.
Prof. Sarpong, who had been one of the few prominent voices predicting a victory for the incumbent government, shared his insights on the challenges of predicting electoral outcomes.
“Election results are never set in stone,” Prof. Sarpong began, emphasizing that no one, not even a seasoned analyst like himself, can claim to have the power to predict the future. “Only God knows the true outcome,” he added, reminding his listeners of the unpredictability that often accompanies such crucial events.
Prof. Sarpong’s statement came as a direct response to his own prediction, which had suggested a different outcome for the elections.
He had anticipated that the incumbent government, led by President Nana Akufo-Addo and Dr Bawumia, would secure a second term. However, when the final results were announced, Mahama’s landslide victory caught many, including Sarpong himself, off guard.
“I had based my predictions on a sample from several months before the election,” he explained, acknowledging the influence of external factors that may have affected his forecast. “A lot can change in a month, and the factors at play during the campaign season—such as voter turnout, the economic climate, and even political shifts—can have a significant impact.”
Prof. Sarpong also pointed to the difference between research findings and actual election outcomes.
“In theory, the sample I collected was solid, but voter turnout plays a huge role. People’s decisions can be swayed by last-minute events, campaign strategies, or even personal factors that are hard to account for.”
Despite the outcome, Prof. Sarpong maintained his professional integrity, stressing the importance of understanding the limitations of polling.
“We rely on data to make predictions, but the real world often doesn’t follow the numbers,” he remarked. “It’s a humbling reminder of the complexity of elections.”
The post Polls Can’t Always Be Trusted – Prof. Sarpong Reflects on Mahama’s Win After His Predictions Fall Short appeared first on MyNewsGh.
